Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
12/31/2011 - Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Blackburn supporters may stop calling for Steve Kean's head as the Rovers manager guided his team to a stunning 3-2 victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford on Saturday.
Kean has long been on the hot seat with Blackburn entering the match in last place, but Saturday's vital win may have bought him some more time to turn things around as the club looks to avoid relegation.
A brace from Aiyegbeni Yakubu powered Blackburn to a two-goal lead before United came storming back with two goals from Dimitar Berbatov. With the equalizer, it seemed as if the home side would go on to grab a winner late on, but Scottish defender Grant Hanley stole three points for the visitors with a goal 10 minutes from time.
Blackburn went in front in the 16th minute following a foul in the box. Berbatov pulled down Christopher Samba in the penalty area and Yakubu converted from the spot to give Blackburn the lead against the run of play.
Yakubu then doubled the advantage in the 51st minute, captializing on some slack United defending to get through on goal and hammer a shot between the legs of goalkeeper David De Gea.
United responded immediately as Rafael Da Silva's close-range cross one minute later was met with diving header from Berbatov, who found the back of the net to rejuvenate the crowd and keep the Red Devils in the game.
The Bulgarian striker bagged another goal 10 minutes later, stuffing home a centering pass from Antonio Valencia. All six of Berbatov's goals have come in United's last three Premier League games.
United continued to press in search of a winner, but with ten minutes remaining, the match turned back in favor of visiting Blackburn.
A corner kick sent into the box was not properly dealt with by De Gea and Hanley took advantage, winning the initial header and slotting the ball over the line to leave United with a mountain climb in the closing minutes.
The Red Devils could not conjure another equalizer, and Hanley's goal turned out to be the winner.
The loss snaps a five-game winning streak and nine-game unbeaten streak in league play for United. The Red Devils still remain tied for first place in England's top flight, although Manchester City would go top with a draw or win against Sunderland on Sunday.
With Bolton playing to a 1-1 draw against Wolverhampton, Blackburn climbs out of the cellar but still remains in the relegation zone on 14 points.
Aston Villa 3, Chelsea 1
London, England - Aston Villa piled on the misery for Andre Villas-Boas as the Villains earned a 3-1 victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.
The Blues are winless in their last four Premier League contests, and with owner Roman Abramovich's track record of high manager turnover, Villas-Boas could be on the hot seat.
Chelsea initially took the lead with a penalty kick from Didier Drogba in the 23rd minute, but it was quickly canceled out by Stephen Ireland's strike five minutes later.
The two sides remained deadlocked until the 83rd minute when Stiliyan Petrov slotted home the game-winner. Darren Bent added a third just three minutes later after a giveaway at midfield from Frank Lampard.
Chelsea drops to fifth place on 34 points following Arsenal's 1-0 win over QPR on Saturday, while Villa improves to 23 points to occupy ninth place.
Arsenal 1, QPR 0
London, England - Robin van Persie continued his season-long goal-scoring tear with the lone strike in a 1-0 win over QPR at the Emirates on Saturday.
The Dutchman fired Arsenal into fourth place with his goal in the 60th minute, as the Gunners jumped ahead of Chelsea in the Premiership table following its 3-1 home loss at the hands of Aston Villa.
Van Persie leads the Premier League in goals to this point in the campaign, netting 17 times in the first half of the season.
QPR is winless in its last seven league contests and sits one spot above the relegation zone with 17 points.
Swansea City 1, Tottenham 1
Swansea, Wales - Scott Sinclair notched a late equalizer to see Swansea City salvage a point in a 1-1 draw with Tottenham at the Liberty Stadium on Saturday.
Rafael Van der Vaart had put Spurs in front just before halftime with his seventh goal of the season, but Sinclair helped draw Swansea level with a goal six minutes from time.
Swansea has drawn two straight and is slowly slipping into a battle against relegation. It sits five points above the drop zone with 20 points.
Tottenham remains in third place with 39 points, but fails to take maximum points in an effort to close the gap at the top of the league after Manchester United was stunned by Blackburn earlier in the day.
Norwich City 1, Fulham 1
Norwich, England - Norwich City claimed a dramatic point at Carrow Road on Saturday, playing to a 1-1 draw with Fulham.
Orlando Sa popped up in the seventh minute for Fulham, recording his first goal for the club, but Simeon Jackson rescued Norwich with a goal in second- half stoppage time.
The Canaries are winless in their last four league games and sit 10th in the table with 22 points, two points ahead of the Cottagers who have drawn two straight.
Bolton 1, Wolverhampton 1
Bolton, England - Bolton and Wolverhampton traded goals on opposite sides of halftime as the two sides played to a 1-1 draw at the Reebok Stadium on Saturday.
Sam Ricketts gave the home side the lead with a goal in the 22nd minute, but it was overturned by Steven Fletcher's eighth goal of the season in the 49th minute.
The result does not help either side, as they were both in need of three points as they fight relegation. Bolton, on 13 points, falls to last place following Blackburn's win at Old Trafford, while Wolverhampton, on 17 points, has drawn three straight and is winless in its last five league games.
Stoke City 2, Wigan 2
Stoke-on-Trent, England - Stoke City was held to a 2-2 draw against 10-man Wigan in a dramatic match at the Britannia Stadium on Saturday.
Wigan took the lead through Victor Moses in the 45th minute, but the Latics were reduced to 10 men in the 76th minute when Gary Caldwell was issued a red card for a hand ball in the box to deny a scoring chance. Jonathan Walters converted the ensuing penalty kick to bring Stoke level.
Cameron Jerome thought he had given the home side all three points with a goal six minutes from time, but Wigan earned a penalty three minutes later and equalized as Ben Watson scored from the spot.
Both clubs retain their previous positions in the table, as Wigan remains in the relegation zone on 15 points while Stoke stays in eighth with 26 points.
<< Yellow Jackets and Utes clash in 78th Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Utah Utes
will square off in the 78th Annual Sun Bowl game this afternoon in El Paso,
Texas.
The Sun Bowl, along with the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl, are all the second
ol
<< Illinois and UCLA duke it out in Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Illinois Fighting Illini of the Big
Ten is set to square off with the UCLA Bruins of the PAC 12 in this year's
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.
The bowl, formerly known as the Emerald Bowl, has a contract to
<< Texas A&M takes on Northwestern in Meineke Car Care Bowl
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas A&M Aggies are set to tangle with the
Northwestern Wildcats in the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas at Reliant Stadium
in Houston.
Texas A&M is playing in a bowl game for the 33rd time in its hi
<< Virginia and Auburn settle in for Chik-fil-A Bowl matchup
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This year's Chick-fil-A Bowl features an
intriguing matchup between the Virginia Cavaliers of the ACC and the Auburn
Tigers of the SEC.
The Cavaliers finished the regular season 8-4 overall and 5-3 in the ACC's
No. 9 UConn downs St. John's >>
Hartford, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shabazz Napier scored 17 points and added nine
assists, as No. 9 Connecticut downed St. John's, 83-69, on Saturday.
Andre Drummond added 16 points and 11 rebounds, Jeremy Lamb had 15 points and
Ryan Boatrigh
Padres acquire OF Quentin from White Sox >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres acquired outfielder
Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox on Saturday in exchange for minor
league pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.
A two-time All-Star and former Si
Kentucky hands Louisville second-straight loss >>
Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist posted career highs of
24 points and 19 rebounds, leading third-ranked Kentucky to a 69-62 victory
over No. 4 Louisville at Rupp Arena.
Anthony Davis contributed 18 points, all in t
Kentucky sends Louisville to a second straight loss >>
Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist posted career highs of
24 points and 19 rebounds, leading third-ranked Kentucky to a 69-62 victory
over No. 4 Louisville at Rupp Arena.
Anthony Davis contributed 18 points, all in t
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting