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07/27/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While a home win by the Calgary Stampeders against the Saskatchewan Roughriders isn't completely surprising, that the win came by 20 points is not something many would have expected. Calgary put on a great second half show against what was the league's only undefeated team, and now sit first overall in the west. The Stamps were the only west team to win in week four, however, as Edmonton and BC joined Saskatchewan in the loss column.
CALGARY STAMPDERS
Calgary quarterback Henry Burris entered week four looking to prove himself against the league's best team, and the result was a division prepared to listen.
After giving up four interceptions in a three-point loss to Toronto last week, Burris overcame two first-half picks and tossed four touchdowns in a 40-20 win against the Roughriders.
It certainly wasn't a perfect game. Both of Burris's interceptions came in the Saskatchewan end zone, taking away two plays that should have resulted in points rather than turnovers.
The veteran QB made up for it with three TD passes in the second half, orchestrating a dynamic offensive attack that had the Riders defense gasping for air.
Receiver Romby Bryant was Burris's favorite target, hauling in two touchdown passes and accumulating 116 yards.
As long as Burris can control his sloppy play, as he did in the second half against Saskatchewan, the Stamps can challenge the Riders for first in the west.
Offensive key to next game: Calgary plays again at home, only this time against the unpredictable Winnipeg Blue Bombers. In week four, the Bombers pounced on Edmonton's mistakes and held the Albertan team in check. Winnipeg is looking to sweep the province, but as long as Burris can limit his interceptions, the Stampeders are in good enough shape.
Defensive key to the game: With all the turmoil at quarterback for the Bombers, one would think that holding the offense in check would be a piece of cake. On the contrary, as Steve Jyles performed admirably starting for the injured Buck Pierce, particularly in his ability to mix a solid running game with his passing. Though Jyles had a successful week four, Calgary can slow the momentum if it can halt Jyles from making first downs on the ground.
Look ahead: The Stampeders have an opportunity to surge ahead in the standings if they take advantage of a relatively soft schedule coming up. A home date at Winnipeg is followed by the troubled offense of the BC Lions and then a home game against rival Edmonton Eskimos. All three have losing records and are prime for Burris and the Stamps to add to their woes.
EDMONTON ESKIMOS
Nearly every team has shown at least some level of competency this season - all except for the Eskimos, who are now 0-4 for the first time since 1965.
Such a start points to a possible change in management, or even some roster moves; whatever it is, the Esks have to find out what to do fast as they are fading rather quickly.
Week four's game saw Edmonton try three different quarterbacks, though Jared Zabransky attempted just one pass. Starter Ricky Ray continues to struggle to find his game, tossing two interceptions to go along with two TD's.
On the defensive side of the ball the Eskimos haven't fared much better. While there have been a sample of individuals who have performed decently enough, there needs to be more of a team effort to get over the hump.
Offensive key to next game: Consistency is the ticket for Edmonton in their next game against BC, and a date with the Lions may be just what they need to put in four solid quarters. Given the uncertainty at QB, Arkee Whitlock may be the Eskimos' key man against a Lions team that has allowed some big numbers against the rush.
Defensive key to the game: The Lions offense was better last week, but not the best it could be. If Travis Lulay starts again for BC, Edmonton needs to exploit the newcomer. Lulay did have a decent game for the Lions, though he failed to toss a touchdown pass. Get to Lulay and the Eskimos can give their offense a chance to score some points.
Look ahead: After BC comes a challenge from the year's major story, the resurgence of the Toronto Argonauts. How good are they? Their record indicates they're a team to watch out for, but playing at home is a huge advantage for the Eskimos in this one. Perfect time to pick up that first win, as it appears unlikely they would get it visiting Calgary in Week 6.
BC LIONS
Travis Lulay led the Lions close to victory in Toronto, but a heartbreaking interception returned for a touchdown destroyed what could have been a decent, if not spectacular win for the BC squad.
Though he threw two picks, Lulay did fairly well moving the ball up the field. A bigger concern for the Lions is the play of newly-acquired Jamal Robertson.
Robertson had two touchdowns, but posted just 54 yards and a fumble in a match advertised as a head-to-head battle between Robertson and his replacement at running back, Cory Boyd. The rookie won round one, and if the Lions want to get their offense going, they need Robertson to step it up.
Offensive key to next game: What's the best way to cure a struggling offense? A matchup against the league's worst team, the Edmonton Eskimos. Edmonton allowed 47 points last week and looked lost defending the Bombers. The Esks had some major problems defending the ball on the ground, and so it's time for Robertson to be the player he's capable of being and attack that weakness.
Defensive key to the game: Edmonton will do its best not to go 0-5, and BC needs to be prepared for that desire to break the ice. Ricky Ray will desire to bounce back after having to sit back and watch his teammate, Jason Maas, take a few snaps at QB in an attempt to kick-start the offense.
Look ahead: The Lions' one win grants them a spot higher than Edmonton, but that's about it. Following their tilt against Edmonton the Lions face the top two teams in the west over the next two weeks. BC can climb their way up quickly if they can pick up some wins against their division rivals.
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS
The season was moving along so smoothly for Saskatchewan's Darian Durant, who appeared to have things well under control at the pivot.
Things did not look that way in week four, however, as Durant threw three interceptions and the defense followed suit by granting too much space downfield for Burris to look at.
Even kicker Luca Congi had trouble getting it going, hitting just one of his three field goal attempts in the game.
Special teams continue to be amongst the Riders' weakness this season as the Stampeders' Deon Murphy averaged over 31 yards per kick return - far too high a number and one that allowed Calgary to maintain better field position.
Offensive key to the next game: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats did a good job of preventing Anthony Calvillo from marching all the way down the field -the problem was Damon Duval hit a team-record seven field goals, points that add up. Riders kicker Luca Congi will need to be more accurate in order for Saskatchewan to get going offensively, while Durant will need to forget about his last performance and focus solely on leading his team over a struggling Hamilton side.
Defensive key to the game: The Ti-Cats were sloppy rushing with the ball against Montreal last week. Saskatchewan can use that if the defensive line bullies down low bother them the way Montreal did, forcing fumbles and turnovers.
Look ahead: After their game against Hamilton, the Riders travel to Montreal in a rematch of the thrilling season opener. The chances of another high-scoring game is highly unlikely as defenses have since tightened up, but if both teams rediscover their offense, perhaps fireworks are still in order.
<< Former Buckeye, Raider Tatum dies
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hard-hitting linebacker/safety Jack Tatum has
passed away at the age of 61 after suffering a heart attack on Tuesday.
Nicknamed "The Assassin," Tatum played for Ohio State from 1968-70 and for the
Oakland Rai
<< Ambrose, JTG Daugherty Racing parting ways at season's end
Cornelius, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - JTG Daugherty Racing and driver Marcos
Ambrose will part ways at the end of the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season,
team officials announced on Tuesday.
Ambrose has driven the No.47 Toyota for JTG
<< Plenty of options remain in NHL free agent pool
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nearly a month after the doors to NHL free
agency opened, the auction for the best up-for-grabs players has come to a
screeching halt.
On the first day of the highly anticipated off-season extravaganza, ow
<< Indians recall Tomlin to make major league debut
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians recalled pitcher Josh
Tomlin from Triple-A Columbus to make his major league debut in a start
against the Yankees on Tuesday.
Tomlin is 8-4 with a 2.68 earned run average in 2
Jays face a major decision on Bautista >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's safe to say Toronto Blue Jays General
Manager Alex Anthopoulos had no idea heading into this year that he would have
to make an important mid-season decision involving Jose Bautista. With the July
31st n
Hannover names U.S. defender Cherundolo captain >>
Hannover, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - United States defender Steve Cherundolo
was named captain of German Bundesliga club Hannover on Tuesday.
Cherundolo, 31, has been with Hannover for more than a decade. He joined the
club in 1999 and h
Heat bring back Shavlik Randolph >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat have re-signed free agent forward
Shavlik Randolph to an undisclosed contract.
Randolph had two separate stints with the Heat last season. He appeared in two
games after being signed as a free a
Pats sign rookie LB Spikes >>
Foxboro, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Patriots agreed to terms with
rookie linebacker Brandon Spikes on a contract on Tuesday.
Details were not disclosed, but the Boston Herald is reporting that the deal
is for four years and wo
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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