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06/29/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Dodgers knocked one team out of first place this week. They will try to do so again when they begin a 10-game homestand with tonight's opener of a three-game series with the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers are coming off a four-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who led the National League West by a game over San Diego following last weekend's play. Los Angeles went on to win three of four in the series, knocking Arizona to into third place in the standings.
The Padres now occupy the top spot in the NL West, a percentage point ahead of LA.
The Dodgers ensured a series win over Arizona with a 9-5 victory on Thursday. Russell Martin fell a triple shy of the cycle in the win, hitting a two-run homer in the first inning, a double in the fourth and a single in the sixth.
Randy Wolf (9-6) tossed six-plus innings and was charged with three runs on four hits for Los Angeles. He walked six batters and struck out four.
Hong-Chih Kuo is set for his sixth start of the season for the Dodgers and has lost his last two outings. He was shelled for eight runs in just 1 2/3 innings on June 20 versus Toronto, then allowed three runs and four hits with eight strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings versus Tampa Bay on Sunday.
The left-hander is 1-3 with a 6.33 earned run average on the season and will make his second career start against San Diego. Kuo, who has also pitched against the Padres twice as a reliever, faced the Padres on June 7 and didn't factor into the decision after yielding one run and three hits and four walks over six innings.
San Diego was idle yesterday after winning its second straight game on Wednesday, a 4-2 victory over the Giants. Greg Maddux (7-4) tossed seven strong innings, holding San Francisco to five hits and one run for career win No. 340.
Khalil Greene homered for the Padres and Trevor Hoffman pitched a scoreless ninth for his 21st save.
San Diego's lineup is expected to get a big boost for this series, as the club activated Brian Giles from the 15-day disabled list yesterday. Giles had been sidelined since May 20 due to a right knee contusion.
Even more help could be on the way, as the San Diego Union-Tribuen reported that the Padres are set to acquire outfielder Milton Bradley from the Athletics in exchange for a minor league pitcher. The paper reported Bradley could join the Padres for Sunday's series finale.
Chris Young brings the National League's second-best ERA at 2.08 into tonight's start. The right-hander is 3-0 over his last seven starts and hasn't posted a loss since May 12 against St. Louis.
The 6-foot-10 hurler is coming off a brilliant outing last time out that saw him toss seven shutout innings of one-hit ball, to go along with two walks and 11 strikeouts, in a 6-1 win over Boston. The victory improved Young to 7-3 on the year.
Young has faced the rival Dodgers twice this season and is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA. He took a loss at Los Angeles on April 15 before getting a no decision at home on June 5 despite throwing seven shutout frames. Overall, he is 0-2 with a 2.97 ERA in seven career starts versus LA.
The Padres have won three straight over the Dodgers and own a 5-4 overall record against the club this season. They won 13 of 18 meetings against Los Angeles in 2006.
<< Slumping Diamondbacks head to San Francisco
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks will try to regain some
consistency when they open a three-game series with the NL West-rival San
Francisco Giants this evening at AT&T Park.
Arizona just dropped three of four games to the Dodgers
<< High-flying Mariners begin Safeco series with Jays
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners will play the final portion of their
12-game homestand when they begin a three-game series with the Toronto Blue
Jays tonight at Safeco Field.
The Mariners improved to 7-2 on the residency afte
<< Reds return home to face Cards
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Brad Thompson looks for his third win in four
decision tonight when the St. Louis Cardinals head to Great American Ball Park
to open a three-game series with National League Central foe Cincinnati.
Thompson,
<< Snell tries to get on track in opener with Nats
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh right-hander Ian Snell will try to get back on
the winning side of the ledger tonight when the Pirates host the Washington
Nationals to begin a three-game series at PNC Park.
Snell, a right-hander from Delawar
Yankees welcome Athletics to the Bronx >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees hope a return home will reverse their
fortunes, as they kick off a 10-game homestand with the opener of a three-game
series against the Oakland Athletics tonight at Yankee Stadium.
New York had won 11
Santana squares off with Verlander at Metrodome >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A terrific pitching matchup highlights the opener of a
three-game series in the Metrodome this evening, as Johan Santana and the
Minnesota Twins welcome Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers to town.
Santana h
Indians welcome D-Rays to the Jake >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians will attempt to maintain their
season-long success at home, as well as the club's recent mastery of the Tampa
Bay Devil Rays, when the two foes start up a four-game series at Jacobs Field
this ev
Rangers mosey up to Boston for four games >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The American League's top and bottom teams get together for
a four-game weekend series beginning tonight at Boston's Fenway Park, where
the AL East-leading Red Sox welcome the lowly Texas Rangers.
Boston currently owns
The Indianapolis Colts know that winning the Super Bowl last season put a huge target on their backs, and they expect opponents to go all-out to knock them from the top of the mountain.
They’ll get their first test from the New Orleans Saints this Thursday night. The defending champs had nothing but good things to say about the New Orleans defense this past week, praising their opponents’ pass rush and run-stopping abilities.
"They play very aggressively," head coach Tony Dungy told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "They play a lot of man-to-man coverage, and they come after you. They have good pass rushers, and they're going to try to pressure us, I'm sure."
Both center Jeff Saturday and quarterback Peyton Manning gave New Orleans’ front four props, admitting keeping guys like Will Smithand Charles Grant contained would be a tall task for the offensive line.
New Orleans ranked second in total defense during the preseason at a sportsbook, allowing just under 233 yards per game. Last season, the defense finished 11th in the league after giving up 307.3 yards and 20.1 points per contest.
Not so sound on the ground
If Indianapolis' efficient offense has a weakness it has to be its running attack. The Colts one-two-punch of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai is no longer, leaving the bulk of the carries to Addai, the second-year back out of LSU.
Former Saskatchewan Roughrider Kenton Keith was named Addai’s backup this week after beating out DeDe Dorsey for the second-string position. Indy has only three backs on the roster right now, including fullback Luke Lawton, and coach Dungy is aware of the thinness of his ground game. Sports Betting lines on the game can be found at BettingExpress.com
“We’ll continue to look. Luke Lawton’s done a good job for us too. So probably getting a third true tailback is something that we’d like to do,” Dungy told the Indiana Tribune-Star.
Last season, Addai rushed for over 1,000 yards in his rookie campaign and scored seven touchdowns on the ground.
Brees says bring it on
Opening the season on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions is not the way most teams would like to kick off their year – unless you’re the New Orleans Saints or their quarterback Drew Brees. This internet Sportsbooks had the Saints as the favorites.
Brees told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he is excited to get the regular season started and the Colts are a great challenge for him and his teammates. The 28-year-old QB, entering his second season with the Saints, is expecting a wild environment in the RCA Dome this Thursday when the franchise celebrates its 2007-2007 championship.
Brees said he sees the opening game scheduling as an honor and a testament to how well New Orleans did last season. The Saints missed facing the Colts in the Super Bowl by one game, losing to the Chicago Bearsin the NFC Championship game.
"I mean, people think we can hang with these guys," Brees told reporters. "Even if they didn't, it wouldn't matter what they thought because as a team we're very confident. We know what we can do. We're not satisfied where we finished the season last year. And we've been looking forward to this opportunity for a long time."
SportsBooks ready for a shootout
Oddsmakers are preparing for some fireworks this Thursday when the NFL season kicks off. online Sportsbooks have Thursday’s total set at a whopping 52 points, accounting for two of the league’s most explosive offenses.
“This is like must-see TV,” Saints cornerback and former Colt Jason David told the Baton Rouge Advocate. “It’s two exciting offenses with great players. You’ve got a lot of star power on offense. At any given time a big play can happen. If I was a fan, I wouldn’t miss a snap.”
New Orleans, who ranked No.1 in total offense last season, can go blow-for-blow with the Colts’ attack. Head coach Sean Payton’s offensive schemes will get even better production out of Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and receiver Marques Colston now that they’ve each had a season of playing together under their belts.
The Saints and Colts were the top two passing teams in the NFL last year, but while Indianapolis managed to put up almost 27 points per game, New Orleans struggled to capitalize on their efforts. The Saints ranked fifth in points per game.
“Yards are great,” running backDeuce McAllister told reporters, “but to be able to score more touchdowns would be important for us.”
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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