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06/17/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The preseason magazines are out, and the polls and All-America teams will follow shortly. Maybe summer is just getting underway, but the rabid football fans can already smell the Labor Day weekend tailgates and visits to FBS heavyweights on the horizon.
The Sportsbook Betting Liness preseason player rankings offer yet another sign of the rapidly approaching season. We already looked at the quarterback position, and now take a peak at some of the best returning players at every other position in the FCS.
Running Backs
1. Kevin Richardson, Appalachian State (Sr., 5-9, 190) - Richardson posted great seasons in 2005 and 2006, but his playoff performance separated him from the running back pack. He tallied 601 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in Appalachian States run to a second consecutive national title, including a dominating 179-yard, four-touchdown day in the championship game victory against Massachusetts. Richardson notched 1,676 rushing yards and an FCS record 30 rushing touchdowns in 2006.
2. Donald Chapman, UT-Martin (Sr., 5-10, 215) - The Skyhawks surprising run to the playoffs and Ohio Valley Conference title last year was spurred by defense, but Chapman did almost all the work for an offense that was inept through the air. He finished the year with 1,412 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, and got better as the season progressed. He totaled at least 30 carries in each of the last four contests, and notched a 206-yard, three-touchdown performance as the Skyhawks clinched their playoff spot with a 42-14 win over Murray State. Chapman looks to join the select company of players with four 1,000-yard rushing seasons in 2007.
3. Lex Hilliard, Montana (Sr., 6-0, 245) - Hilliard missed all of last season with an - injury, but he showed what he can do with a huge 2005 campaign and should provide a huge boost to a Montana team with high national title aspirations this year. He was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award in 2005 when he ran for 1,322 rushing yards, including a 237-yard outburst in a victory against Cal Poly. Hilliard enters his senior season 1,186 yards short of the all-time rushing mark at Montana.
4. Mike McLeod, Yale (Jr., 5-11, 200) - The Bulldogs had a breakout season with an 8-2 record and a share of the Ivy League title in 2006, and McLeod was the biggest breakout player on the team with a huge effort in his sophomore season. He ran for 1,364 yards and 19 touchdowns on a 10-game schedule, and was a workhorse all season with six games of 30 carries or more, eight consecutive 100-yard efforts and at least one touchdown in the last nine contests of the season.
5. Omar Cuff, Delaware (Sr., 5-10, 195) - Cuff wasnt at 100 percent through an injury-plagued junior season, but hes shown the potential to be a threat in the running and receiving game throughout his career at Delaware. Cuff had 541 rushing yards and eight touchdowns to go with 31 receptions in 2006, and put up 1,205 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns, 41 receptions and four receiving touchdowns in a stellar 2005 season.
6. Jordan Scott, Colgate (Jr., 5-11, 200) - Scott followed up a dominating freshman campaign with another quality effort as a sophomore to solidify his place as one of the best running backs in the FCS. He tallied 1,234 yards and 12 touchdowns a year ago, and finished strong with 338 yards in the final two contests. Scott has 2,598 yards and 22 touchdowns going into his junior season with the Raiders.
7. James Noble, Cal Poly (Jr., 5-6, 180) - Noble had flashes of brilliance with 1,578 yards and 16 touchdowns as a freshman in 2005, and came back with solid numbers through an injury-plagued season a year ago. He has 2,587 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns through two seasons, and has a chance to post staggering career numbers if he can stay on the field all season.
8. Herb Donaldson, Western Illinois (Jr., 5-11, 220) - Donaldson had a day for the history books with 328 rushing yards and six touchdowns to lead the Leathernecks to a 46-41 victory over Indiana State, and did pretty well the rest of the way to finish with 1,417 yards and 18 touchdowns in his sophomore campaign. Those numbers included a 144-yard, three-touchdown day against Western Kentucky.
9. Maurice Murray, Northeastern (Sr., 6-0, 220) - With 2,385 career yards and 29 total touchdowns, Murray has been a workhorse in the Husky backfield for the past two seasons. He notched career highs of 1,061 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2006, with single-game career bests of 226 yards and three touchdowns in the season finale victory against Rhode Island.
10. Eugene Holloman, James Madison (Sr., 5-11, 170) - Holloman emerged as the go-to guy of the James Madison backfield. He totaled 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns, including a 171-yard, two-touchdown day in a victory against Delaware.
Fullbacks
1. Jerome Felton, Furman (Sr., 6-0, 250) - Felton will probably be one of the most prominent FCS names on the NFL radar in the spring, but first hell try to go out with a monster senior season after an injury-plagued junior year. He still managed 707 yards and an amazing 23 touchdowns a year ago, and scored five touchdowns in one half against Western Carolina.
2. Blake Burton, Texas State (Jr., 6-0, 230) - Burton earned first-team All- Southland Conference honors in a sophomore season where he helped pave the way for a Bobcat team that averaged 150 yards per game on the ground.
3. Joe Casey, Rhode Island (Jr., 5-10, 210) - Casey has flourished in the Rams option offense as a running back/fullback with 2,119 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns through two seasons, and he helped the offense average more than 190 yards per game on the ground in 2006.
4. Bobby McClintock, Portland State (So., 5-10, 230) - McClintock successfully followed the departed Allen Kennett by earning first-team All-Big Sky recognition as a freshman.
Wide Receivers
1. Alex Watson, Northern Arizona (Sr., 5-10, 180) - The Lumberjacks got a huge season from Payton Award runner-up Jason Murrietta in 2006, but Watsons role in the passing success was just as integral. He earned first-team All-America honors while totaling 82 receptions for 1,017 yards and 15 touchdowns. Watson notched 12 receptions or more on four occasions, including a 12-reception, 214- yard, two-touchdown day in the season opener against Arizona State.
2. Jerome Simpson, Coastal Carolina (Sr., 6-3, 185) - Simpson earned his reputation for making the big play for the Chanticleers offense when he made national highlight reels while notching 10 receptions for 162 yards and two touchdowns in an upset victory over defending national champion James Madison, and showed how productive he could be in a more wide-open attack with 61 receptions, 1,077 yards and 16 touchdowns to help lead the Chanticleers to the 2006 postseason.
3. Micah Rucker, Eastern Illinois (Sr., 6-6, 225) - The numbers (49 receptions, 966 yards, 13 TD) werent staggering, but Rucker showed his big-play potential throughout the 2006 season and helped the Panthers qualify for the postseason with 106 yards and two touchdowns in a victory in the season finale against Jacksonville State.
4. Bruce Hocker, Duquesne (Sr., 6-4, 205) - The Dukes moved the ball successfully through the air a year ago, and Hockers 61 receptions for 1,070 yards and 16 touchdowns were a big reason for the success.
5. Ramses Barden, Cal Poly (Jr., 6-6, 230) - An inconsistent offensive effort kept Barden (42 receptions, 824 yards, 5 TD) from posting bigger numbers, but the 6-foot-6 target presented a tough matchup for smaller defensive backs and averaged nearly 20 yards per reception.
6. Duvaughn Flagler, Gardner-Webb (Sr., 6-1, 210) - Flagler enters the 2007 season with 1,566 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns, and hes emerged as a model of consistency after notching at least six receptions in his final five games a year ago.
7. Clyde Edwards, Grambling State (Sr., 5-10, 175) - Edwards has played his first three seasons in the shadow of All-American Henry Tolbert, but hes done fine for himself with 2,247 yards and 23 touchdowns in his career and enters the 2007 season as the go-to guy for the Tigers.
8. Eric Allen, Montana (Sr., 6-3, 210) - Allen led a deep group of Grizzly receivers with 51 receptions for 801 yards and five touchdowns last year, and should be a key cog on a potentially potent offense.
9. Shaheer McBride, Delaware State (Sr., 6-3, 190) - McBride has played a key role in the turnaround for the Hornets program with 153 receptions for 2,431 yards and 24 touchdowns in the past three seasons.
10. Larry Shipp, Tennessee Tech (Sr., 5-9, 185) - One of the most consistent receivers in the country, Shipp has put up almost identical seasons of receptions (51/50), yards (799/803) and touchdowns (8/8) in the past two campaigns.
Tight End
1. Blake Martin, Sam Houston State (Sr., 6-3, 235) - Martin earned first-team All-Southland Conference honors while leading the Bearkats with 39 receptions for 481 yards and two touchdowns a year ago, and could see those numbers go up with Rhett Bomar at quarterback.
2. Brad Listori, Massachusetts (Sr., 6-4, 245) - Listoris 38 receptions for 604 yards and three touchdowns placed him among the Minutemens top pass- catchers, and he could play a more significant role in the offense with the departure of a couple of key contributors from last years national runner-up.
3. Louis Irizarry, Youngstown State (Sr., 6-5, 255) - A heralded transfer from Ohio State, Irizarry hauled in 25 receptions for 304 yards and two touchdowns a year ago and forms a strong tight end duo with Derrick Bush.
4. Chris Wagner, South Dakota State (Sr., 6-7, 255) - An imposing target that has also played for the Jackrabbit basketball team, Wagner hauled in 24 receptions for 265 yards and two touchdowns as a junior.
5. Shaun Fitzpatrick, Northern Arizona (Jr., 6-2, 240) - Fitzpatrick became a reliable target in a season where he caught 20 passes for 229 yards and one touchdown.
Offensive Line
Guards
1. Kerry Brown, Appalachian State (Sr., 6-6, 290) - Brown staked his claim as the best player on the best offensive line in the FCS by earning the Jacobs Blocking Trophy as the top offensive linemen in the Southern Conference.
2. Mitch Erickson, South Dakota State (Sr., 6-6, 290) - Erickson earned first- team All-Great West honors for a Jackrabbit team that was coming on strong at the end of the 2006 season.
3. Colin Dow, Montana (Jr., 6-5, 310) - Dows outstanding sophomore season included first-team All-Big Sky honors, and he should provide solid play for a Montana offensive line that looks very imposing on paper.
4. Brad Samsa, Youngstown State (Jr., 6-3, 280) - Samsa earned second-team All- Gateway honors as a sophomore as he helped the Penguins rush for 223.7 yards per game.
5. Matt Alfred, Eastern Washington (Sr., 6-3, 300) - A first-team All-American in 2005, Alfred completed another strong year in 2006 and leads an offensive line that should aid the Eagles effort to make a move back up the Big Sky standings.
Tackles
1. Chad Rinehart, UNI (Sr., 6-5, 310) - Rinehart picked up second-team All- America honors by directing an offensive line that helped the Panthers to nearly 220 rushing yards per game on the ground.
2. Nate Safe, North Dakota State (Sr., 6-5, 310) - Safe was widely considered the best player on a stellar Bison offensive line that played a significant role in the teams 10-1 season
3. Matt Austin, Massachusetts (Sr., 6-5, 285) - Austin earned third team All- America honors as the left guard on an imposing Massachusetts offensive line a year ago, and moves to the left tackle position to protect Liam Coen in 2007.
4. Cody Balogh, Montana (Sr., 6-7, 325) - Balogh, who started at right tackle as a true freshman during Montanas 2004 run to the national championship game, earned third-team All-America honors after serving as a full-time starter at tackle for the second year in a row.
5. Brandon Hale, Sam Houston State (Sr., 6-3, 325) - The first-team All- Southland pick started all 11 games and helped pave the way for a big 2006 season by running back D.D. Terry.
Centers
1. Brennan Carvalho, Portland State (Sr., 6-1, 310) - A two-time All-Big Sky selection and 2006 All-American at guard, Carvalho makes the move to center to lead what should be a wide-open Viking offense.
2. Stephen Field, Cal Poly (Jr., 6-1, 280) - A first-team All-Great West pick as a sophomore, Field should provide good protection for a Cal Poly offense with quality playmakers at the skill positions.
3. John Reese, Lehigh (Sr., 6-1, 275) - Reese earned first-team honors from the Patriot League as he helped the Lehigh offense average more than 340 yards per contest.
4. Billy Krause, UT Martin (Sr., 6-2, 285) - Krause led the way for Donald Chapman and the potent Skyhawk running game, and earned first-team OVC honors in the process.
Defensive Ends
1. Bryan Smith, McNeese State (Sr., 6-3, 220) - Smith tallied 84 tackles and 13.5 sacks in a first-team All-America effort, and his speed and playmaking ability off the edge will make him a strong contender for the Buck Buchanan Award.
2. Kroy Biermann, Montana (Sr., 6-3, 240) - On a very productive defensive line, Biermann became a Buck Buchanan candidate by posting impressive numbers of 76 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks and three forced fumbles.
3. Kendall Langford, Hampton (Sr., 6-6, 295) - The Pirates lost a bunch of key contributors, but will get a boost on defense with the return of Langford, who notched 55 tackles and eight sacks in 2006.
4. Brian Johnston, Gardner-Webb (Sr., 6-5, 280) - The Bulldog defense struggled at times, but Johnston did all he could to keep the unit going with 77 tackles, 14 tackles for a loss and eight sacks.
5. Rudolph Hardie, Howard (Sr., 6-1, 270) - Howards defense is usually strong up front, and Hardie played a big role in that effort with 20 tackles for a loss and 9.5 sacks.
Defensive Tackles
1. Mychal Savage, Youngstown State (Jr., 6-2, 290) - Savage earned first-team All-Gateway honors as he made 54 tackles and 5.5 stops for a loss during the Penguins semifinal run.
2. John Faletoese, UC Davis (Jr., 6-3, 290) - After a breakout freshman season, Faletoese was strong again with 35 tackles, 9.5 tackles for a loss and three sacks to aid a UC Davis defense that allowed only 3.4 yards per carry last year.
3. Mark Huygens, UNI (Jr., 6-6, 280) - Huygens solidified the middle of the Panther defensive line and led the team with 10 tackles for a loss and seven sacks to go with 29 tackles.
4. Geoffrey Woods, Tennessee Tech (Sr., 5-11, 285) - Woods built on a strong 2005 season by notching 46 tackles, 12.5 tackles for a loss and two sacks a year ago.
5. Brandt Hollander, Yale (Sr., 6-3, 280) - Hollander tallied 6.5 tackles for a loss and four sacks to solidify the middle of a Yale defense that was tough against the run.
Linebackers
1. Donald Thomas, Eastern Illinois (Sr., 5-10, 240) - Thomas flourished in an attacking and opportunistic Panther defense with 127 tackles, 8.5 tackles for a loss, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries in 2006.
2. Jason Hatchell, Massachusetts (Sr., 6-1, 225) - The first-team All-Atlantic 10 pick led the Minutemen in tackles for the second season in a row, finishing with 134 stops as the team advanced to the national championship game.
3. Mike Gallihugh, Colgate (Sr., 6-0, 200) - Gallihugh led the nation with 140 tackles, 84 solo, and notched 12 tackles for a loss and four sacks to earn first-team All-America recognition and a Buck Buchanan Award candidacy.
4. Kye Stewart, Illinois State (Sr., 6-0, 210) - The Redbirds have a great tradition of standout linebackers, and Stewart should have his name high on the list if he can approach last years 126-tackle season.
5. Joe Mays, North Dakota State (Sr., 5-11, 245) - The numbers werent extraordinary because of the overall dominance of the defense up front, but Mays turned in a quality season with 67 tackles, five tackles for a loss and two sacks.
6. Andrew Jones, Furman (Sr., 5-11, 235) - After notching 129 tackles as a sophomore, Jones solidified his spot as a quality linebacker with 121 tackles and 12 tackles for loss a year ago.
7. Colin Disch, Albany (Sr., 6-1, 220) - Disch has been one of the most consistent players at the linebacker position over the past three seasons, and comes off of a 2006 campaign where he tallied 103 tackles and 11 tackles for a loss.
8. Jada Ross, Charleston Southern (Sr., 5-11, 220) - Ross followed up a huge 2005 season with a productive 2006 year that included 127 tackles, 11 tackles for a loss and two sacks.
9. James Terry, Youngstown State (Sr., 6-2, 230) - Terry was second on the team in tackles (76) and tackles for a loss (10.5) and first in sacks (5.5) to earn first-team All-Gateway honors for the second year in a row.
10. Gian Villante, Hofstra (Sr., 6-2, 225) - Villante dominated in 2004, missed the 2005 season with an injury, and came back strong again with 92 tackles and seven tackles for a loss a year ago.
Safeties
1. Tony LeZotte, James Madison (Sr., 6-0, 200) - LeZotte made his name as a top safety with a strong effort in the 2004 national championship run and hes kept it up since then, including a 2006 season with 82 tackles and two interceptions.
2. Corey Lynch, Appalachian State (Sr., 6-0, 200) - Lynch earned All-America honors in the past two campaigns after missing the 2004 season due to injury, and his ball-hawking ways have led to 17 career interceptions, including three in last years postseason.
3. Bobbie Williams, Bethune-Cookman (Sr., 6-1, 180) - Williams has picked off six passes in each of the past two seasons, and earned third-team All-America plaudits a year ago.
4. Jamelle Juneau, McNeese State (Sr., 6-2, 215) - Juneau filled the stat sheet for the Cowboy defense with 79 tackles, four interceptions and three fumble recoveries.
5. Jarmaul George, Southern (Sr., 6-1, 190) - George stepped in nicely for the Jaguar defense in 2006 with 42 tackles, five interceptions and four passes broken up.
Cornerbacks
1. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State (Sr., 6-2, 170) - Rodgers- Cromartie played a significant role in the Tigers renaissance with six interceptions, seven pass breakups and 47 tackles in a season that earned him first-team All-Ohio Valley Conference recognition.
2. Brandon Jackson, Georgia Southern (Jr., 6-0, 185) - Jackson made a huge impact in his first season after transferring from Central Michigan with five interceptions and a second-team All-Southern Conference honor.
3. Casey Gough, Holy Cross (Sr., 6-0, 200) - A three-year starter, Gough totaled 54 tackles, eight tackles for a loss, three interceptions and seven pass breakups in 2006.
4. Austin Holmes, Furman (Sr., 5-8, 185) - Holmes took over as the starter early in the 2005 season, and he continued his strong play a year ago with 62 tackles, 4.5 tackles for a loss and two interceptions.
5. Ricky Wilson, Northern Arizona (Sr., 5-11, 180) - A transfer from the University of Houston, Wilson had 29 tackles and six pass breakups in his first season with the Lumberjacks.
Punters
1. Mike Dragosavich, North Dakota State (Sr., 6-5, 215) - Dragosavich rarely had to see the field for the Bison, but he made the most of his 30 punts by averaging 46.2 yards per kick and placing 14 balls inside the 20.
2. Benjamin Dato, Fordham (Sr., 6-3, 195) - Dato aided Fordhams field position battle by averaging 44.6 yards per punt, good for third in the nation a year ago and the best mark of any qualified returning punter this year.
3. Chris MacDonald, Texas State (Sr., 6-4, 215) - MacDonald averaged 43.4 yards per punt and earned first-team All-Southland Conference honors in the process.
4. Wesley Taylor, Florida A & M (Sr., 5-7, 170) - Taylor averaged 41.2 yards per punt in 2006 after booming 59 punts for 2,707 yards as a sophomore.
5. Dan Zeidman, Idaho State (Sr., 6-1, 205) - Zeidman averaged 43.6 yards on 53 punt attempts and chipped in with a 6-for-8 effort on field goal attempts, including a 50-yard boot.
Kickers
1. Rob Zarrilli, Hofstra (Sr., 6-0, 195) - Zarrilli converted 18-of-21 field goals to earn second-team All-America honors a year ago, and he has successfully made 35-of-40 kicks in the past two seasons.
2. Blake Bercegay, McNeese State (Jr., 6-2, 180) - Bercegay connected on 18- of-20 field goals for the Cowboys in 2006, and nailed all five of his attempts in a critical overtime victory at Northwestern State.
3. Steve Morgan, Brown (Sr., 6-0, 170) - Morgan had a breakout year with 18- of-23 field goals converted in 2005, and he has made 39-of-54 kicks over his career.
4. Parker Douglass, South Dakota State (Sr., 5-8, 170) - Douglasss 4-for-5 effort lifted the Jackrabbits to a 20-17 win at McNeese State a year ago, and hes been consistent overall with 15-of-21 kicks converted in 2006 and 46-of-69 for his career.
5. Dan Carpenter, Montana (Sr., 6-2, 205) - Carpenter nailed 24-of-30 field goals in 2006, and has connected on 56-of-80 kicks during his three years in Missoula.
Returners
1. Steven Whitehead, McNeese State (Sr., 5-8, 170) - Whitehead is dangerous whenever he touches the ball as a receiver or return man, and he hurt opponents with a 16.8 average and a touchdown on punt returns and a 23.9 average on kick returns to earn first-team All-America recognition.
2. Craig Turner, Southern Illinois (Sr., 5-10, 195) - Turner has excelled in the punt and kickoff return game in the past two seasons, with a pair of punt return touchdowns and a kickoff return TD to go with impressive averages in both categories.
3. Jesse Burton, UT Martin (Sr., 5-10, 185) - Burton earned second-team All- America honors as he averaged more than 26 yards on kick returns, with two touchdowns, and nearly 10 yards per punt return.
4. LC Baker, James Madison (Sr., 5-7, 155) - Baker will spend plenty of time at receiver as well after leading the Dukes in that area a year ago, but he can make a quick impact as a punt returner.
5. Ulysses Banks, Alabama A & M (So., 5-10, 195) - Banks only returned 13 kicks in his freshman season, but he excelled with limited action with two touchdowns and a 34.9 average.
Note to Readers: This will be my final FCS column with The Sportsbook Betting Lines. Thank you all for the readership and correspondence over the years; it made the job even more enjoyable to know that so many people had a devotion for the FCS level of football. A special thanks goes out to all of the people who provided assistance and information in the past three seasons. Of course, The Sportsbook Betting Lines's extended and unmatched FCS coverage will continue with a well- qualified columnist and editor.
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Housto
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Roddick is again King of Queens >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American Andy Roddick saved a match point
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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