Phillies head to Chicago riding win streak

Baseball Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies had an up-and-down first half, and it was no different for the club over the season's final week before the All-Star break.

They do come out of the hiatus with some momentum, and the Phillies will look to extend that run versus a Chicago Cubs team that has a lot of work to do in the second half, beginning with tonight's opener of a four-game series at Wrigley Field.

Philadelphia has won each of the last three National League East titles and the last two NL pennants, but comes out of the break trailing first-place Atlanta by 4 1/2 games in the division standings. The Phillies lost two of three to the Braves to begin last week, but then swept the NL Central-leading Cincinnati Reds in four games to close out the first half.

The Phils took the first three games of the set in extra innings, the first two on walk-off homers before a 1-0 triumph on Saturday. They then claimed Sunday's finale again by a 1-0 margin and will try to match their longest winning streak of the season, set from April 9-14, tonight.

"To take four from a very, very good team is a good positive," said Sunday's winning pitcher Cole Hamels, who threw 7 2/3 scoreless innings.

Philadelphia comes out of the break 11th in the NL with a .255 team batting average, but is sixth overall with a collective 3.92 earned run average

Ryan Howard leads the Phillies with 17 homers and 65 RBI and went 0-for-2 with a strikeout as the NL's designated hitter in Tuesday's All-Star Game, won 3-1 by the Senior Circuit. Roy Halladay, who won 10 games and posted a 2.19 ERA in 19 first-half starts for the Phillies, recorded a pair of outs in the sixth inning and allowed two hits while fanning a batter.

Chase Utley was voted to start the game at second base, but he missed the contest due to right thumb surgery. Philadelphia also opens the second half without third baseman Placido Polanco due to a left elbow injury.

Jamie Moyer lost the Phillies' finale with the Braves on July 7 and will seek to snap a two-start slide tonight. The 47-year-old had won three starts in a row prior to his skid and posted a 1.86 ERA in four outings before getting tagged for seven runs on seven hits and three homers over 5 1/3 innings versus Atlanta. It marked just the second time in eight starts that Moyer allowed more than two runs and dropped the lefty to 9-8 with a 4.51 ERA.

Moyer, who was drafted by the Cubs way back in 1984, lost to Chicago on May 19 despite yielding just two runs on four hits over seven innings and is 3-2 with a 4.27 ERA in eight career starts versus the Cubs.

Chicago resumes play 11 games under .500 (39-50) and 9 1/2 games back of the Reds in the NL Central. The Cubs, who begin a 10-game homestand tonight, looked to have picked up some momentum when they scored 23 runs in sweeping a three-game set with Arizona from July 5-7, but they then lost three of four to the Dodgers. Chicago was shut out, 7-0, in Sunday's finale, not surprising given the club is 14th in the NL with 359 runs scored.

Center fielder Marlon Byrd was the Cubs' lone All-Star representative, and he certainly had an impact in the NL's win. He walked in the seventh inning and scored on Brian McCann's three-run double before recording the game's first outfield forceout since 1957 when he gunned down Boston's David Ortiz at second base in the ninth inning after John Buck's fly ball dropped in front of him in right.

Byrd leads Chicago with a .317 batting average and is hitting .412 (14-for-34) with five RBI over his last nine games, but the former Phillie is hitting just .210 in 22 games against his old club.

Chicago will need Derrek Lee (.233) and Aramis Ramirez (.207) to get on track on the second half, though Ramirez hit .429 (12-for-28) with four homers and nine RBI over his last seven games before the break.

That could be good news for Ryan Dempster, who alternated wins and losses over his final five starts before break. The right-hander did beat Arizona on July 7 despite his shortest outing of the season, a five-inning stint in which he gave up three runs on eight hits.

Dempster hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last seven starts and is 7-7 with a 3.61 ERA on the season. The 33-year-old got a no- decision versus the Phillies on May 20, giving up four runs over six innings while serving up homers to Utley and Jimmy Rollins. In 22 career outings versus Philadelphia, including 15 starts, Dempster is 4-4 with a pair of saves and a 5.05 ERA.

The Phillies and Cubs split a two-game set in Philadelphia from May 19-20, giving the Phils a victory in eight of the past 10 meetings between the teams. They have also won five in a row at Wrigley Field, sweeping a three-game set there last season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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