Ruggeri helps save Argentina

Soccer Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If Argentina lifts the World Cup four years from now in Brazil, Oscar Ruggeri will be able to take some of the credit.

No, Ruggeri is not a fleet-footed winger capable of scoring bags of goals, or even a stalwart defender who will help to shore up a leaky defense.

Ruggeri was a coach on manager Diego Maradona's staff during the 2010 World Cup for Argentina, and he is partly to blame (or praise) for Maradona not being retained.

All indications over the past few weeks pointed to a four-year extension for the legendary Maradona, which would run through the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

Argentinean Football Association president Julio Grondona was firmly in Maradona's corner, but he wasn't as pleased with some of Maradona's coaching staff.

Ruggeri in particular came under scrutiny since he was the defensive coach who watched his side concede four goals in a quarterfinal loss to Germany earlier this month.

However, Maradona was adamant that he would need to be able to retain all of his staff if he were to continue, telling El Show del Futbol with typical boldness:

"If they touch a hair of one of my guys, even if the masseur or the kitman, I'm going. "I want to continue the adventure but not with (just) anyone. I chose these people. I want to continue working with them."

The problem is that some of the other board members did not agree that Maradona's staff warranted another chance, and he was instead let go in order to make way for a new coach.

"I would be a hypocrite if I didn't admit there was a general disliking of several aspects of the cycle that ended with the World Cup," general secretary Jose Luis Meiszner told cable channel C5N. "We did not see any intention to show humility, to say things should have been done better. There was no evaluation, no review, no conclusions. These are the things you have to think about in order to think about the future."

Humility has never been one of Maradona's greatest attributes, and if he had been retained as manager for another four years, Argentina would have many entertaining press conferences to look forward to, but no real chance at winning its third World Cup.

Maradona's appointment as manager in October 2008 was met with plenty of skepticism. After all, here was a man whose coaching resume consisted of a pair of one-year stints as a coach with smaller clubs in Argentina, making him grossly underqualified to take on such a big task.

Essentially, Maradona was a teenager with a learner's permit who was given the keys to a race car and asked to compete in the Daytona 500.

He got off to rocky start in qualification with an embarrassing 6-1 defeat at the hands of Bolivia, while also losing matches against Brazil, Ecuador and Paraguay.

In fact, qualification for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa was not secured until the final two games, as Argentina needed late goals to beat both Peru and Uruguay.

Maradona and his team were heavily criticized for such a poor showing, but they still had enough talent to be a factor in South Africa.

The one thing they were missing was an experienced coach on the bench, and that fact became horribly apparent in their quarterfinal thrashing against Germany.

After winning four successive games to start the competition based on having superior talent alone, Argentina came up against an equally talented German side, but Maradona was in no position to match wits with his German counterpart, Joachim Loew.

Germany was able to score an early goal, and from there, Loew had his team sit back and soak up the pressure from Argentina before finding openings on the counter attack.

It was a plan that worked to perfection, as Argentina time and again tried to break down a well-organized German defense, only to be turned away and punished on the break.

It was a bit like watching someone run headfirst into a brick wall over and over again, and hoping that the outcome will be different the next time they try.

In a situation like this, Maradona the player would simply drop into midfield, collect a pass and dribble through six defenders before scoring a wonderful goal.

However, Maradona the manager was only able to stand on the sidelines and clap his hands while shouting encouragement to his befuddled players, looking as confused and lost as they did.

Instead of making a tactical adjustment Maradona watched as Argentina continued to hit its head against the wall by attacking in the same manner over and over again.

The end result was not pretty; a 4-0 defeat and a plane ticket back to Buenos Aires.

The one area in which Maradona did excel was taking the focus off of his players and soaking it up himself.

Prior to the Germany match he engaged in a war of words with some of the German players, and while the ability to deal with pressure is a good quality for a coach, it is just a small part of the job.

Maradona clearly was in over his head tactically, and with such a gifted side at his disposal, it was a shame that they lacked any real direction.

You would have thought that the result against Germany would have been enough to convince Argentina's board that Maradona needed to be replaced, yet still they were ready to offer him four more years.

However, the poor performances of coaches like Ruggeri have now saved Argentina from making a terrible mistake and have given the board a chance to redeem itself by finding a qualified coach capable of taking the reigns.

Maradona's playing career is no less brilliant despite his failings as a coach, and his loyalty to his staff is admirable. However, he is clearly not the right man for the job, and thanks to Ruggeri, Argentina can now search for the man who is.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.