Red Sox send Dice-K to hill in finale with Mariners

Baseball Betting Lines

07/25/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -The finale of a four-game series will take place this afternoon at Safeco Field when the Seattle Mariners take on the Boston Red Sox.

Heading to the mound this afternoon for Boston will be Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is looking for his third straight victory. The last time the hard-throwing right-hander was on the rubber he led the Red Sox to a 2-1 victory over Oakland.

In the victory over the Athletics, Matsuzaka surrendered just one run on two hits in 6 2/3 innings of duty. The veteran hurler walked just two batters and struck out six. It was the eighth time in the last nine starts that Matsuzaka allowed no more than three runs in a contest.

In eight starts outside of Fenway Park Matsuzaka has claimed a 4-1 ledger, but he has not been overly impressive, posting just a 4.13 earned run average.

This will be the seventh career start for Matsuzaka against Seattle, and in the previous six outings he has posted a 2-1 record with a 3.99 earned run average.

The Mariners will hand the ball to Doug Fister, who will be looking for his first victory since May 14th when he led Seattle to a win over Tampa Bay. Since then the right-hander has gone 0-5 in his last eight starts and that includes a loss to Chicago in his last outing.

In that matchup against the White Sox, Fister did an admirable job, allowing just three runs in six innings, while collecting six strike outs, but a lack of run support doomed the pitcher.

Fister, who will be facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career, has pitched extremely well at home, but his 2-3 record at Safeco Field does not do his performance justice. In nine starts in front of the home crowd Fister has an impressive 2.51 earned run average, allowing just 19 runs in 64 2/3 innings.

Last night, Michael Saunders homered in the sixth inning after Eric Patterson's missed catch ruined a perfect game bid for Boston starter Jon Lester, and the Mariners went on to take a 5-1 victory over the Red Sox.

Lester (11-5) dominated the Mariners, striking out nine through the first five perfect innings. He showed no signs of slowing down after striking out Josh Bard to begin the sixth, but the game quickly went downhill.

Jack Wilson lofted a ball to shallow center field and Patterson ran to get under it, but the ball bounced off the top of his glove and fell to the ground. Saunders followed by ripping a home run to right.

Lester went on to take the loss, allowing five runs (four earned) on four hits and one walk in 7 2/3 innings. He also struck out a season-high 13.

Saunders finished with two hits for the Mariners, who had lost the first two in this four-game series. Friday's loss was marred by a skirmish in the team's dugout in the fifth inning, as tempers flared after second baseman Chone Figgins was pulled from the game after an apparent lack of effort.

However, Figgins was back in the lineup Saturday and hit an RBI double.

While Lester was dominant early on, Mariners starter David Pauley was effective in 5 2/3 innings. He walked one and allowed five hits, one of which was a fourth-inning home run by David Ortiz.

Chris Seddon (1-0) recorded the final out of the sixth and took the win after Saunders' home run put Seattle on top for good.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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